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To what kind of world will we recover?
Delve into seven world-shaping megatrends, analyse the data that defines them, and plot their potential impact on individual industries.
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How the pandemic has fuelled money laundering
Over the past 12 months Covid-19 has curtailed countless business activities, but not money laundering. The UN estimates some $1.6tn is laundered every year, and authorities say lockdown measures have presented criminals with even greater opportunities...
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Covid-19: widening the gap between rich and poor
Despite the coronavirus pandemic, in 2020, the world’s five wealthiest individuals saw their collective worth increase by more than $250bn.
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Spacs: the blank-cheque blitz of 2020
Special purpose acquisition companies, or Spacs, have taken Wall Street by storm this year. Spacs are shell companies that raise money by listing on the stock exchange.
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Supermarkets’ super struggle to make money from home delivery boom
Covid-19 has led to an ecommerce surge in grocery sales. But grocers are struggling to make any money from online home deliveries.
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Globalisation – from slowdown to stasis?
Covid-19 won’t mark a turning point for globalisation itself, reveals new research from UBS, as it’s been in retreat for the better part of 15 years.
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Could the coronavirus hasten the death of cash?
Cash is on the decline, and the coronavirus could well hasten its demise. During lockdowns, consumers shifted to online retail and were encouraged not to use cash, to prevent the spread of the virus.
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Counter-Covid: Why we may live longer post-pandemic
UBS Research argues the Covid-19 pandemic could act as a catalyst to increased life expectancy over the long-term, thanks to improvements in health tech, a policy pivot on obesity and a positive shift in consumer attitudes towards health.
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5G's business model revolution
The tech evolution enabling business model revolutions. 5G could cover up to sixty percent of the global population, and reach up to one and a half billion subscribers within five years.
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Succeeding in the electric vehicle business is no easy ride
Scores of electric car start-ups have been launched over the past few years, but many may have failed to recognise the size of the challenges involved.
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ESG: from niche to mainstream to mandatory?
ESG investing has gone from niche to mainstream in twenty years. Meanwhile, a growing consciousness of the plight facing the planet has had little impact on key indicators for its future.
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Could texting be the next big thing in ecommerce?
In China, the use of texting to shop, hail cabs or buy groceries is the norm.
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Are big corporations paying enough tax?
Do companies like Apple and Amazon pay a fair amount of tax? Some think not.
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The future of meat
We are on the cusp of a new agriculture revolution – and investor appetite is strong.
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Are profits still a good thing?
Uber. Lyft. Snap. These US tech groups floated with multibillion-dollar valuations, yet all of them made losses last year, one-offs excluded.
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Robotaxis: rollout, returns and the impact on mass transit
UBS Evidence Lab developed a simulation model for a fleet of taxis in NYC which concluded that the global market could be worth more than two trillion dollars by the end of 2030.
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Using AI to spot potential rogue traders
Rogue traders can cost banks billions. Now, some are using artificial intelligence programmes to flag suspicious behaviour, looking at everything from how traders phrase their emails to the times they use their computers.
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Space travel is set to rocket
50 years since man first set foot on the moon, the business opportunity presented by space travel has morphed from science-fiction to reality.
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Have we reached peak financialisation?
The rise of financialisation has been a driving force in the global economy for the last few decades.
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Will China win the AI arms race?
The worldwide AI race is on. China’s openly targeting global leadership by 2030, and it’s well on the way. AI's fuelled by data, and that gives China a competitive advantage.
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How much longer can King Dollar reign?
The US dollar is a symbol of American strength. But America’s share of global economic power is waning, and many countries resent the dollar’s dominance as a reserve currency.
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Tesla's ramping up production of the Model 3
Tesla's ramping up production of the Model 3. But is the electric vehicle evolutionary, or revolutionary?
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Should robots be taxed?
Robots are on the march, sparking much debate about what to do with the workers they’ll replace.
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Trade wars: the impact
A full-blown trade war between the US and China could mean global GDP decelerates by more than 100 basis points, and major global equity indices tumble by more than 20 percent.
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Fintech regulation: What Britain can teach the world
The Financial Conduct Authority has won praise around the world with a so-called sandbox, where UK fintech companies can test products with temporary authorisation.
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Who now can lead the world?
A world order of peaceful co-operation feels like a distant dream. Democracy and global capitalism are increasingly under threat and nativist sentiment is spreading.
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Is the kitchen dead?
UBS estimates global online food ordering could leap from $35bn dollars today to $365bn by 2030. It’s thanks to a convergence of the on-demand and sharing economies, and a combination of industrial, economic and demographic factors.
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Activist investing: a change in tactics
Last year, including share purchases, more than $62bn was deployed by activist investors on their campaigns, double the amount spent in 2016. At the same time, activism is changing.
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Will regulatory reform become a China investor's biggest opportunity?
Regulatory reforms are set to revolutionise China’s Financial Services industry, opening up numerous opportunities for international investors.
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Can Big Tech’s threat to democracy be tamed?
Fake news is now a political weapon. Tech platforms have been used to manipulate elections and political outcomes, not just in the US but in Europe and developing countries too.
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What could a long-term weaker dollar mean for the world?
The fall of the US dollar has been a big market story in 2018, and despite a strong recovery in the second quarter of the year market commentators say this could be a long-term trend.
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India’s demographic dichotomy
On paper, India is a demographic diamond in the rough. In the next decade, the ratio of its population at working age is set to surpass China’s.
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Al Gore: why sustainable investing makes financial sense
Former US vice-president Al Gore is on a mission to prove the business case for sustainable investment.
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Why is Switzerland so keen on cryptocurrencies?
Switzerland has long been a global economic hub. Now it’s embracing the potential of cryptocurrencies and digital tokens. Last year, four of the biggest initial coin offerings - when start-ups sell tokens to investors – were based in Switzerland.
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Will asset prices fall as QE unwinds?
Following the financial crisis, central banks bought trillions of dollars worth of financial assets – mostly bonds - to pump up their economies.
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Four things to know before you invest in an ICO
In 2017 initial coin offerings, the latest tech craze, raised more than $6bn. But there is little regulation for these digital tokens, and they can be risky investments.
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Emerging markets: macro worry, micro euphoria
There’s a macro-micro divide in emerging markets. The IMF and BIS are warning against rising corporate debt, yet P/E ratios are soaring.
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Death of the ATM?
The rise of cryptocurrencies, contactless cards and mobile payments has led to predictions that we are at the dawn of a cashless society.
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Central banks’ cryptocurrency quandary
Some of the world’s most important central bankers are leaving their posts, and their successors will have to deal with fast-growing technological innovations such as cryptocurrencies.
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Monetising China's eSports boom
Global eSports revenues are predicted to hit $1.5bn by 2020. Fans are young, passionate, and given they’re 38% female, a marketer’s dream. In 2017, the finals of 'League of Legends’, owned by China’s Tencent, had a total of 1.2 billion views.
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The rise of robot currency traders: what does this mean for humans?
In an effort to stamp out unethical behaviour and cut costs, banks have cut staff and – in many cases – robots are taking their places.
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The critical role diversity plays in economic growth
With consumption rising, the only way humanity can maintain or improve its standard of living is to do more with less. That requires innovation and productivity. Diversity is absolutely essential for this.
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Nasdaq looks beyond stocks and bonds
Nasdaq’s technology pairs buyers and sellers of financial assets at lightning speed. Now it is exploring ways to enable trade beyond its traditional markets - from ticket sales to container space.
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Capital expenditure is on the up: what it means for innovation and growth
In the US and Asia, capex has been driving improvements in corporate performance. Now, after 6 sluggish years, a positive trend has emerged in Europe as well.
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Will the renminbi ever really be a reserve currency?
Just over a year ago the renminbi passed a significant milestone when the IMF included it in its Special Drawing Rights currency basket, along with the dollar, pound, euro and yen.
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Rise of the robo-taxi: driving transport disruption
Robo-taxis are coming. Singapore will be testing vehicles as early as next year, and ultimately they could prove significantly cheaper and more popular than current mass-transit systems.
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How women got wealthier
By 2021 women will be in charge of $18tn worth of the world’s wealth. Their control is rising more quickly than men, but what is behind this growth?
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The geopolitics of trade: who is winning?
These are uncertain times for global trade, and not just because of Donald Trump’s protectionist rhetoric.
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Asia’s innovation boom: where it’s happening and why it matters
Asia's R&D spend is on track to exceed Europe and the US combined by 2020. But which countries are innovating, what are the implications and are investors pricing in the potential?
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Relearning the rules of Adam Smith
Many of the core ideas behind Adam Smith’s vision of capitalism are being ignored.
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The boom in digital trade: how data are replacing physical goods
By 2025, cross-border data flows could be worth $20tn, more than current global trade in goods.
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Active vs Passive Investing
There’s been a boom in passive investment since the turn of the millennium, channeling the flow of capital away from mutual funds into hedge funds and sector specialists.
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How US businesses lost faith in globalisation
For the past three decades western multinationals have been outsourcing production to low-cost countries such as China.
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Unwinding QE in the eurozone: who stands to lose?
The ECB’s quantitative easing programme is still expanding and has now reached more than €2tn.
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The fall of King Dollar
2017 promised to be a strong year for the US economy, driven by the Trump trade. But things have gone off the boil and the dollar has remained weak.
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Cybercrime: how safe is our money in a cashless world?
The drive towards a cashless society may eventually eliminate cash-based crimes, but there are myriad ways our digital life can be exploited by criminals and even governments.
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The great QE unwind
Since the global financial crisis, major central banks have printed money and bought assets worth $12tn. But can we now return monetary policy to something like normal?
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Banking’s fintech fears
22 fintech companies around the world are now worth more than $1bn and bankers are becoming worried about these upstarts, especially since new legislation in Europe may force them to share precious customer data with their fintech rivals.
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Where Does Cash Matter Most? Demonetisation shakes the sub-continent
More and more governments are aiming to phase out cash, ostensibly to curb tax avoidance and criminal activity, while some countries are making leaps and bounds towards a cashless future without a backwards glance.
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Electric Vehicles: Who wins under the hood?
Electric Vehicles are going mainstream, but when will they become profitable for manufacturers, and which sectors and firms are set to benefit the most?
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Bitcoin’s Existential Crisis: making a decision with billions at stake
The cryptocurrency that was invented to disrupt traditional banking through its decentralised model is under increasing strain as it grows in popularity.
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Financial centres after Brexit: a bonanza for Europe?
As the process of Brexit continues, the UK’s neighbours are eyeing up the business they can take from London, and the City’s banking sector is the real prize.
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Knowledge is the New Capital: why companies keep making one simple and costly mistake
What if the traditional approach of treating labour as a cost, rather than an asset, was turned on its head?
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China’s corporate debt addiction: bond defaults spell trouble
Unprecedented bond defaults have economists worried about the levels of Chinese debt.
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Protectionism in Practice: examining the economic impact of tariffs
If the US put tariffs on Chinese goods, the impact would be felt way beyond the borders of both countries. China is the world’s biggest exporter, but it’s also the second biggest importer, with many of those imports coming from other Asian countries.
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Debt vs. Equity: the shifting moods of finance
Nearly a decade of low interest rates coupled with tax advantages have encouraged many companies to opt for debt to underpin their growth. But could this era be coming to an end?
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The Death of Cash: an ancient technology on the way out?
A number of governments, central banks and even some economists now advocate a switch to all-digital currencies. With the rapid rise of mobile payments, the long-term survival of cash seems precarious.
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